Year of Hell

Carlisle United relegated to the National League

In 2002, binman Michael Carroll became the UK’s most infamous lottery winner, collecting £9.7m at 19. Soon vilified in the press as the “Lotto Lout” or the “King of Chavs”, Carroll had a criminal record that would be added to during his period of wealth, having won the jackpot while wearing a tracking tag. In spite of an originally stated intent to spend his money wisely, a combination of giveaways to family, drug use, restrictive investment choices and other ways that would have fit in well with the last days of Rome, that money was gone by the end of the decade with Carroll back on the bin route to make ends meet. Somewhat admirably, Carroll indicates he has no regrets but his is arguably one of the UK’s most cautionary tales on wealth - a man who came into money, a man who through impulse, poor advice and having seemingly used up his life’s quotient of luck to win his riches in the first place lost every penny of it. A man who understandably stated that “poor is better than rich” when looking back at his experiences.

Which leads us to Carlisle United. Two seasons after being promoted to League One from poverty, they are relegated to the National League in financial comfort.

Poor certainly felt a lot better than rich does right now.

At the start of this season, opinions on Carlisle United’s chances were considerably more optimistic than the abyss. My pick of the side finishing 9th hoping for a potential late run to try to challenge for the playoffs was, I think it’s fair to say, towards the more pessimistic end of the predictive spectrum. Even that low bar was limboed by a side that has begun to make more of a habit of undershooting meagre expectations than the British economy.

If 23/24 was the story of a deeply outmatched side being relegated from League One and slowly but surely seeing the talent gap expand across the season in spite of no lack of fight, 24/25 has been the story of a side being relegated with a seeming gap in effort turning any talent gap into a never-ending chasm. A season where all the ghosts of seasons past in the likes of Patrick, McKirdy, Butterworth, Dennis and Gibson twisted the knife into their former employers. If last season’s distant relegation was a kick in the teeth, this season has been a kick in a distinctly lower yet equally painful body part. Repeatedly. With steel toe capped boots.

Going back perhaps three seasons, I have always maintained that League Two always has a club that is relegated, if not two, not because of necessarily a poor job on the pitch or a lack of commitment, but because the footballing gods have decided that, this time, Southend or Scunthorpe or others must suffer. Arguably Carlisle are unique in that not only have the footballing gods deserted the club, the quality and attitude appears to have also, leaving a limp and moribund mess that may just have everyone to blame. What on earth went wrong? Here I take the thankless task of attempting to work that out and to work out exactly what needs to change.

(You may wish to read this one in a couple of goes given it is pushing 10k words so, fair warning. This is of the sort of ridiculous length whereby Substack won’t allow me to add images because your email servers would block it due to size.)

Manager by Manager

Any season that goes through with three and a bit managers (the bit being caretaker periods) is undoubtedly tumultuous. It doesn’t necessarily have to be bad - Roma in 1963/64 being a good example here - but it is tumultuous.

But arguably the defining feature of each manager isn’t necessarily their competence (although we’ll get into that), it’s the timing of their spells, the timing of the end of those spells and the decision making around them.

Paul Simpson

While it’s easy to look back in hindsight and state that Paul Simpson should have left at the end of 23/24, it’s important to note that most people not involved in the running of the club were also of the opinion in the Spring of 2024 that, with foresight, Paul Simpson should probably have left the club at the end of 23/24.

Doing so would have allowed the spectre of the League One season to be owned entirely by one person (and that person being considered by most fans pretty much blameless and have done what he could) and allowed a new manager a full summer to get ready for League Two as well as getting the players they wanted in the club. It would have been a clean break for the club and a clean break for the man so he could focus on sending the club proposals for naming something at Brunton Park after him. Instead, he left in what became a dark atmosphere of his own creation rather than the road to redemption the club likely expected.

To quote a passage from the club’s 23/24 accounts “According to EFL independent benchmark data from March 2023, our Player Costs ranking in League 1 was not in the bottom four and our on-field performance did not reflect the resources provided”. So why was the person in charge for that statistical underperformance given another chance?

Over the summer, the club recruited in a way that quickly blew up in Simpson’s face with injuries quickly ripping the depth out of the side. An opening day shellacking by Gillingham was followed by a win vs Barrow before getting outplayed in Milton Keynes which made the Tranmere game at home a must win - Omari Patrick, formerly of Carlisle and pushed out the club by Simpson, scored twice bringing a poisonous atmosphere at Brunton Park, while the Piataks were in attendance, and it twisted their arm into letting Simmo go at the close of the transfer window. Fans saw the decline in standard and felt the only way for the club to meet expectations of a playoff finish was to lose Simpson.

People can and will say what they like about Simpson - he got unlucky with injuries, his football was less meat and potatoes and more mutton and bread, he stayed too long, he was the reason the rot set in - but if you honestly think that this squad would have been in the position they’re in with Simpson at the club all season long, then a) I’ve an argument about Mike Williamson you may wish to read and b) I’ve also got some magic beans to sell you.

Some players may not have been keen on Simpson the coach, some may not have been keen on Simpson the person, but Simpson the disciplinarian would not have stood for the meekness that so often followed and Simpson the press articulator would not have come out and insipidly said “the boys are hurting” every week. You have to imagine standards would be higher than that. Carlisle at the end of August probably needed a reset in playing style, but a cultural reset would probably not have been on the agenda.

Mike Williamson

In a way, Mike Williamson was absolutely terrible. Measured by results? Terrible. Measured by communications? Terrible. Measured by performances? Eh, terrible would be pushing it but it’s in that ballpark.

Then you throw in any one of many caveats that could excuse his spell - the team was built to play in a manner the polar opposite that he wanted to, the team’s injury list was massive, for most of his time at the club the only fit striker was Luke Armstrong, the free agents he brought in needed time to get up to speed, the best (or at least only good) signings made this season are Williamson’s, it’s not as if he hadn’t made abundantly clear at MK Dons that he doesn’t like short, snippety post-match interviews. You could easily think up more excuses to bail Williamson out.

Should he have been hired? Given he was likely on the brink at MK Dons, paying a release fee for him was madness. Rather than a white knight on a magnificent steed, United got a grey eminence on a knackered donkey. But, much like much of the above - that’s not really his fault. He can hardly be blamed for taking a job that was offered, especially given he was motivated by the uncertainty over his role in Milton Keynes.

Williamson’s problems, however, came with his belief in his beliefs. His side would play how he wanted and there wasn’t much in the way of accepting pragmatism in that approach. Rather than compromising, he steadfastly attempted to impose and, while it would be wholly incorrect to say everything Mike Williamson did was bad, trying to impose 25 years of footballing evolution into a squad in the space of a few weeks was never going to work. Trying to mentally reset players whose first option in their head was leathering it 50 yards was like getting monkeys to try to rewrite Shakespeare. We should not be surprised that things turned out to be the blurst of times and not the best of them.

That is not an indictment of the football he plays. Some fans made statements such as that his football just wouldn’t work in League Two or the National League - Williamson’s CV and successful spell at Gateshead and successful start to his spell at MK Dons shows that sort of opinion to be simply not backed up by the facts. His issue was not what he thinks football should look like.

Williamson, for all he remains an intelligent coach when allowed to get across his ideas at length, was never able to get his ideas across fully. The side did make motions towards playing the way he would have wanted to and, in his defence, the fleeting spells where it worked showed some impressive football. But fleeting is all they were. More often were toothless periods and a consistently lack of ability to improve during games with changes.

Mike Williamson’s biggest issue was simply that of communication - little about him inspired belief. His dislike of post-match clips where he had to attempt to get a ten minute concept into ten words meant he came across as too quiet for the task at hand. For a Carlisle support used to blood and thunder under Simpson, Williamson’s more thoughtful approach as things slid into a relegation quagmire, was just never going to be enough to win over fans without the results to match.

Sacked at the end of the January transfer window and after a 5-1 home demolition by Swindon, Williamsons spell ended with a couple of positive results being overturned by a series of gut punches. Williamson came closer than most would give him credit for to turning things around and was probably one good result from turning things around - a late New Year’s Day collapse against Crewe was, in retrospect, the missed opportunity that did for him. That positive result never came and, inevitably, the axe did.

Mark Hughes

You may, like me, still be of the opinion that Mark Hughes being Carlisle manager is weird. This is because it is. Yet his record initially was pretty darned similar to that of Williamson with 1pt difference over his first 11 games vs Williamson’s final 11. It felt like it was a case of the ownership going “well, Ian Holloway worked at Swindon so…”. While Hughes did find form late, it felt more like the reins were being loosened rather than it being a direct result of a change in approach, etc.

Some of the problems are relative - Carlisle’s issue being considered to be that Tranmere found form when United didn’t - but that would obscure the fact that the nature of League Two’s title race meant that, in many instances, Carlisle under Hughes have mainly faced sides out of sorts yet Carlisle’s form remained, for too long, bad.

Mark Hughes doesn’t get a caveat because other sides had a bit of form - he simply gets a slight pass with many fans for being a legendary striker, a slight pass with many fans for having no need to take this job at this time yet being willing to do so, a slight pass for at least getting some form out of a side (albeit of the “It’s the hope that kills you…” variety) and a slight pass with many fans simply for the reason of not being named Mike Williamson.

Against Doncaster, in a 3-0 away loss, Carlisle United straight up downed tools. They looked like they downed tools against Swindon in Williamson’s last game, but only after a stupid red card and a concerted attempt to try to chase the game. Vs Doncaster, that was at 1-0 with 11 men. Doncaster are one of the better sides in the division but more could have been done.

That game was followed by the sort of argument you get when you’re in the situation the club are in - players getting Domino’s Pizza on the bus home for their tea. On the back of a win, probably not something that would even be met with comment, but on the back of the meekest of defeats, something that absolutely ignites some of the more febrile fans. Whether or not pizza says something about culture or not, when things are going against you, everything says something and a couple of hundred quid on pizzaz gets looked at for nutritional value, for whether people are happy to get pizza and so on and so forth.

Mark Hughes, as a manager to the end of the season as the last roll of the dice, isn’t about to look to redefine a culture or set a culture because he won’t expect and/or want to be at the club long enough to cement it. Can you blame him if a culture frays? That Hughes did, at least, put together the sort of form that this squad should have put out all along for a short spell is perhaps less an indication of Hughes own abilities and more an indication of “look at what you could have won”. Hughes put together a similar run at Southampton, managed to avoid relegation and then was sacked four months into the following season with the side worse than ever - Hughes potentially thinks he’s the future next season but his past and his present shows Carlisle will need to make a next step.

Decision making

Regardless of the performance of the managers in managing, the manner of departures being consistently at the end of a transfer window either a) forcing a new manager to play with his predecessor’s squad or b) handcuffing the club on the last couple of days of a window would not be high in anyone’s best practice folder. Particularly when those managerial appointments have been such that they are managers with radically different playstyles rather than a sensible evolution. Williamson, for example, was trying to do his work with an unsuitable tool - less using a hammer to crack a nut and more trying to use a screwdriver to hammer in a fence post.

Some have chosen to… single-out is too harsh a term, but point a finger at Sporting Director Rob Clarkson. Clarkson joined the club at the end of October for his first role as Sporting Director after time at Rangers and in the youth groups of the FA. For him to receive blame in terms of the recruitment at the club is a bit wild given that, speaking as a scout myself, recruitment plans aren’t done on the fly and Clarkson wouldn’t necessarily have his finger that deeply in that pie in the first place beyond a committee level discussion with the rest of the recruitment team and the manager. Just looking at the announcements of players, Clarkson’s quotes are prominent mainly in those of Callum Whelan, Elliot Embleton and Josh Williams which possibly suggests his deep interest was in those deals (not in itself a vote of confidence in Clarkson, to be fair) and, even then, Whelan was very much a Williamson signing.

(As an aside, going to the “speaking as a scout” line, I most certainly would argue Carlisle’s recruitment showed a distinct lack of imagination - save for Cameron Harper, Archie Davies and Will Patching, every player than came in was very much a known quantity to the people bringing them in - Whelan, Wyke, Dennis - and/or a cast-off from a higher level club - Thomas, Jones, Embleton, etc. For example, not using the GBE and ESC regulations in the club’s favour is an obvious recruitment blindspot - Notts County have gotten plenty out of Jatta, Grimsby can say similar for Svanthorsson also. Carlisle had the budget to be able to use it well but chose not to - most League Two clubs are guilty of similar meaning the potential benefit of using the rules in the club’s favour would be far higher and, arguably, you could almost view the slot as like the MLS’ designated player system, where you devote a salary investment to bring in a higher standard player from elsewhere who would almost exist outside of the club’s normal wage budget. That would be particularly impactful at this level given the league bands you’d be recruiting from would be those lower down the ladder so you’d be naturally making a value saving in wage anyway therefore can stretch a little higher. See Andy Watson’s blog for far, far more on this but it’s something I wholeheartedly endorse and agree with.)

My point is that a sporting director is at a club to put in a long-term strategy. The success of Rob Clarkson, therefore, can hardly be determined when his time at the club has barely reached the medium term. That’s not to say Rob Clarkson has had a good short-term, it’s merely to say that there’s a limit to how much blame for this season can be levelled at him. The problem is that there was no clear plan there before him.

That plan should have been there. That’s on Greg Abbott as Head of Recruitment who has acted reactively, on Nigel Clibbens as Chief Executive who hasn’t seemed to demand that plan be there, and that’s on the Piataks as owners for tolerating that. Nigel Clibbens has been in post nine years and, to his merit, helped run the club through a period when there was no money and didn’t see the club relegated to non-league. Having a Clibbens type who appeared broadly trustworthy and competent was likely a big plus for the Piataks. But a man who can see you through the lean times isn’t necessarily also the man who can take you through the good ones and while he will argue that he had built robust recruitment structures and so on, the evidence is in black and white in the league table that those robust structures have fallen over.

As for Greg Abbott, it’s hard to make an argument that his past successes merit him being at the club. While he was owed a debt for his time in the dugout a decade prior, looking purely at his recruiting as leading that team since rejoining the club in 2022… well, there actually really aren’t any. Owen Moxon joined before he did, Tomas Holy was Simpson led, Paul Huntington had the local factor and approached the club himself. The rest are from last season and this and, well, we’ll get onto them in a bit.

And those “robust structures” appear to be robust only in the amount of sway they retain at the club. See this from Clibbens to the News and Star with this quote about a meeting with Mark Hughes:

“We brought players in and we supported bringing the players in to help boost the squad. Clearly a lot of those we would expect to start but ultimately it's the manager who picks the team.”

If the manager truly picks the team, why are you having a two hour long discussion with Mark Hughes to try and understand why he’s not picking other players? Mark Hughes is the manager. Mark Hughes has, whatever else anyone thinks of him, a long CV suggesting he knows what he’s doing. Leave him to it.

Clibbens may point to “robust structures” but if they make the wrong decisions and collapse into nonsense under pressure, maybe the fact is those structures weren’t robust in the first place. If there’s anything that exemplifies Carlisle United’s issues, it’s this misguided belief that what was there already on the Piatak takeover was fine to carry on with little meddling while the Piataks learned the ropes and invested behind the scenes. That may have been understandable 18 months ago - it isn’t now.

Clibbens can point to years of successes before, but he should know post hoc does not ergo propter hoc, it appears to ergo proper clart.

Player by Player

Only including players who played in the L2 campaign. That this section is so absurdly long is not my fault.

Goalkeepers

Gabe Breeze

Breeze, called either Gabe, Gabriel or, if you’re that one EFL+ Sky commentator, Gabrielle, took over the gloves in the Autumn from Harry Lewis and didn’t let go of them. To a scouting eye, Breeze is an interesting one as some of the saves he pulls off are truly exceptional and, behaviourally, you’d take one look at his penalty save vs Port Vale to suggest XL Breeze has some XL nerves to go with it. Using Opta’s goals prevented stat, Breeze is hanging around the top five in the division although, at 21 and now through his first period of being a first choice goalkeeper, there are still things to work on - his distribution under pressure is perhaps the key one but others would pick at his command at set pieces (one I’d chalk off as a hangover from the next goalkeeper) and occasional mistakes that you’d expect from someone of Breeze’s (lack of) experience. That said, Will Jaaskelainen was a League One regular at this age but has topped out at National League level in his mid 20s so Breeze’s ceiling is hard to determine. He’s due another season at this level to decode that one.

Harry Lewis

With the positives, Lewis is a perfectly capable shot-stopper. But per that Opta stat, Lewis is the worst GK in League Two with more than five appearances. Behind a defence that wasn’t working, behind a set piece defence that exposed his weakness on the cross and with confidence to match, Lewis definitely needs a move this summer to recover. The unfortunate reality is that given his fee, Lewis stands as one of the multiple candidates in this 24/25 squad that would qualify as one of the worst signings the club has ever made.

Jude Smith

Came injured as a back-up GK, presumably so Breeze could go out on loan this season. Hasn’t been seen.

Defenders

Archie Davies

When Davies joined, some LoI types pointed out that while he looked good in Ireland, it was driven by the fact that he was a better athlete than the guys he was playing against and that stepping back to England was probably the worst thing he could do. They were probably right. Davies is by no means bad but has had an unfortunate campaign where he missed time with injury and changes in shape meant he had to either move position or sit out. It wouldn’t be wrong to say he has been exposed a bit as his searing pace was just not really a fit for Mike Williamson and the right manager could easily get a tune out of him.

Cameron Harper

Copy and paste. One key feature of getting Harper was that he had good set piece delivery. Unfortunately, he joined a side that aren’t good at that. Or any sort of attack for that matter (unfun fact, at time of writing this bit, Carlisle are the only club in L2 not to have scored from a counter attacking situation which, if you’re a natural full/wing-back and likely leading a counter attack from your box, is going to mess up your productivity). Harper has missed time, been shifted to multiple roles and has only really found form under Mark Hughes playing as the natural LB he is. Had he been fit under Simpson, you expect he’d have flourished earlier.

Terell Thomas

Struggled mightily at first and his debut vs Gillingham was a bit of a horror show but, once he found his feet, did far better. Carlisle haven’t been good defensively but he deserves more merit than most.

Sam Lavelle

Struggled mightily at first, with “at first” covering the entire 23/24 season when he was forced to be the senior partner in a defence that he was brought in to be the junior partner of. While I’ll touch on contracts later, Lavelle’s is up this summer and he absolutely should remain to be the spine of the side in the National League as he’s been far more comfortable this season than last and shown why he was a League One signing. For those concerned that I’ve been surprisingly uncritical so far, just wait.

Aaron Hayden

He joined coming off an injury hit time at Wrexham and has been in and out of the side all season due to short term injuries and, eventually, the realisation that the issues Hayden had in passing and in mobility weren’t just due to fitness. The squarest peg in Mike Williamson’s rounded holes, Hayden had not a single good game prior to Mark Hughes joining and making his job be as no-nonsense as it gets. At only 28, he shouldn’t be done, but he has regularly looked it when asked to go beyond the basics and I can’t imagine him playing in the EFL again as a regular unless being used in a very specific and limited way.

Paul Dummett

One game, got injured after 5 minutes. What else can you say? Played little enough that he can’t be near the cohort of worst signings.

Jack Ellis

Ellis probably needed this season on loan to find his level and kick on a bit. He’s done OK in repeated cameo appearances, but he needs to be playing more regularly to develop and if he can only be a bench player for much of the time in this side, that suggests next season will be the real make-or-break one if he wants to stay above NLN level.

Charlie McArthur

I played a FM save where McArthur became an elite CB, Scotland mainstay and moved for tens of millions. I am not confident that this will be the case in real life.

Josh Williams

Brought in late in January to be… well, I’m not really sure what. He’s ended up as third choice on the right as Mark Hughes quickly decided against playing him and doesn’t seem to fit a four at the back. Will surely get a chance next season, but a puzzler so far.

Ben Barclay

I don’t dislike Ben Barclay. It might be about to seem like I do, but I don’t. Barclay was solid in 22-23 and inflated his reputation no end by scoring that playoff semi winner to send Carlisle to Wembley. However, he was then signed permanently and that was madness. He wasn’t a League One standard player and that was clear. Mark Hughes quickly thought he wasn’t a League Two standard one either and Barclay’s issue is again he doesn’t fit four at the back because he works well in a three as the more ball-playing option but is neither a good enough CB to be in a two nor a good enough DM to justify putting him further up the park. It’s not that he’s bad, necessarily, it’s just that when you see him it means that someone better isn’t available. He’s Hi-Tec trainers in an Adidas world.

Jack Robinson

Was forced to play a lot in League One, was supplanted by Harper and then changing formation and is now at Hartlepool. The right move.

Ben Williams

Williams was highly unlucky to get injured early season after looking reasonably competent. Couldn’t get back in the side after Williams changed things and was released. I hesitate to say he deserved better, but he didn’t get the chance to show he could.

Jon Mellish

I’d have driven him to his next club. Even if it was Barrow. I know he has his supporters and I know his commitment wasn’t questioned, but Carlisle were right to take the money and that’s all I’ve got to say about him.

Midfielders

Ethan Robson

Started injured, played a little, got injured, played a little, got bombed off on loan to Gateshead. If he had been fit, he surely would have contributed and would have fit well. But he couldn’t stay fit and couldn’t make himself useful.

Callum Guy

Guy began the season still recovering from a serious knee injury. On one hand, I think it’s fair to say he’s not been the player he was since coming back (but who has?) and has been a definite notch in performance down from pre-injury. On the other, trying to get fit after not having a pre-season isn’t easy and has had to deal with rotating formations and midfield partners. Similarly to Lavelle, his contract is up and you would want him there as an experienced spine to the squad even if he has been demoted to being a bench option rather than arguably the first name on the midfield teamsheet.

Jordan Jones

Now we start getting to the bits of the squad that cause physical anguish. Jones has been bad, even if you discount his ridiculous sending off for two yellows for diving. Like many, he had time injured but I think it’s important to state one key fact - Jones was brought in to be a key creative outlet in the squad and has contributed to zero goals this season. From 9 contributions in 26 last season in League One to zero this season in similar appearances at a lower level is, frankly, dire. Pick your criticism, Jones has probably earned it at some point this term.

Josh Vela

Vela has earned similar over two terms. At one point in his career, he was highly rated and,when he joined last season, he did so having been Fleetwood captain and enjoying a prolonged period of fitness. The latter stopped at the end of last season and this term, Vela has been arguably the worst of any regular. He’s not got enough movement to be deployed wide, his tackling isn’t good enough and he doesn’t press enough to play deep, his technique is such that his passing can be sloppy and he’s reliable only for one potentially costly mistake a game. Callum Guy, who plays mainly in a similar role, has about 1.5x the touches Vela does. If your passing, defending, movement and seemingly your work-rate also aren’t there, there is very little anyone can use to defend your performance.

Dylan McGeouch

McGeouch is, at least, a tidy player who has never really let the side down when he played. Unfortunately, this is because he generally hasn’t been fit enough to play and, as such, was left off the squad list for the second half of this season. 25 appearances in his two seasons at the club are more due to that than anything else but it is fair to note that there were visible signs of it taking a physical toll last season and that his availability should be very limited shouldn’t have surprised anyone.

Kadeem Harris

Oh, thank goodness, someone actually reasonably competent. Harris had a slow start, given he joined in November and took until the festive period to really find his feet. One can easily argue he’s been unlucky not to have scored more - the amount of big chances he’s missed is statistically much higher than his previous seasons but are more him sticking things on the post rather than missing absolute sitters. He’s been shifted around positions also and surely won’t be hanging around to play non-league - were another League Two side to pick him up next season, they’d probably catch the production that Carlisle’s bad luck has missed and get another 6-8 goals out of him.

Will Patching

Will Patching, in LoI, played mainly as an advanced midfielder with a bit of a free role to drift around and create things for strikers and play havoc between the lines. Will Patching, in Carlisle, has been asked to be a defensive midfielder. When Carlisle have been crying out for attacking prowess all season, putting Patching in a role where he couldn’t contribute to that is surely not the best use of his talents. When you have Harris and Jones who could have played as proper wingers, Patching is probably exactly the talent profile you want as a 10 between them in behind a striker. Happy to say the jury is out on him as any issues are likely more to do with tactics than anything else.

Callum Whelan

If Mike Williamson did nothing else positive, he at least brought in Whelan. Generally tidy on the ball, happy to offer a threat on the shot, positive workrate and has, in spite of probably having the least in the way of pedigree of anyone in the Carlisle midfield, looked more a League Two player than most. Not every performance has hit the mark but that’s to be expected stepping up and stepping into a squad that is basically on fire. He absolutely has a role to play going forward.

Elliot Embleton

Embleton actually looked OK for his first couple of games but, as his starts turned into sub appearances, it’s been hard to avoid the impression that he’s thrown the towel in and would rather be anywhere else other than the club he’s signed to until… dear God, 2028! His ridiculous sending off vs Chesterfield that threw his team-mates under the bus probably has most fans hoping they never see him in blue again.

Sean Fusire

Throwing a 19yo into *waves hands* this is a difficult task and Fusire did struggle on his first couple of appearances. But where Embleton turned going from starter to sub with a negative reaction, Fusire has made the effort to look lively in the ten to twenty minutes he’s been getting and had been effective in that, earning his way back into the starting line-up vs Chesterfield before leaving injured. He got back quickly and continued to look lively and earn starts. You can’t ask for much else from a young loanee.

Harrison Biggins

Signed late by Simpson only for him to find out it’d be Mike Williamson looking after him, Biggins applied himself and while he was good 75% of the time, he was bad the other 25% and the nature of that outweighed the good. With the players coming in in January, his loan was never going to last but he was, at least, a damn sight better than Embleton.

Harrison Neal

Neal was originally signed in January 24 to ostensibly replace Callum Guy while out injured. If that is the bar by which to judge him, he missed it as Neal, while full of effort and snap, isn’t up to the same standard of passing or linking up with colleagues. You set him deep and ask him to run around and tackle things before laying it off to someone more talented and Carlisle never played in a manner where that role was really a thing. Went to Fleetwood in January and has played better there because Pete Wild knew how to use him.

Taylor Charters

This should have been the season he moved from young reinforcement to the first team proper. Instead, he had sub appearances before going on loan to Queen of the South where, not for the first time, Peter Murphy has shown he knows how to develop the region’s players better than Carlisle seem to.

Attackers

Georgie Kelly

Tennessee Williams’ breakthrough play was ‘The Glass Menagerie’ about a struggling mother attempting to deal with their daughter’s physical and mental issues that stemmed from childhood illness and no small amount of anxiety over her perceived fragility and inferiority. In the play, she has a collection of glass animals, her Glass Menagerie, which she obsessively cleans. When she finally finds what her family think is a suitor, the “couple” dance, knocking over and smashing a glass unicorn – the suitor reveals he was actually engaged to be married to someone else and the ensuing arguments tear the family apart because the Glass Menagerie was an allegory for the mental state of the daughter and the fragility of the family. Tennessee Georgie, the glass striker?

Kelly’s never once been fit enough to have a run of appearances to prove any kind of value nor has he. Maybe there’s a good player there somewhere, but given his injury record is akin to Mr Bump, would anyone ever see it? His late season form suggested that, when fit, there’s a player there but one month of fitness in eighteen, however timely it was, isn’t enough to rely on next season.

Charlie Wyke

Speaking of injury, Wyke has missed the majority of the campaign after a serious leg break and, having come back from his heart issues, you could understand if he just decides to call it a day. Wyke’s problem beyond this is that, even if you just look at when he was available, it wasn’t very good. 2 goals in 13 is… well, it’s better than anyone else managed, but for a striker who is at the upper end of salaries in the entire league, it’s nothing like good enough.

Joe Hugill

Mark Hughes seems to not be a fan and, if anyone can judge a striker at any level, a guy who played up front for giants probably can - when you stick a 6ft 2in striker on long throws rather than in the box for it, that’s no good thing. Hugill, to be fair, didn’t have a great scoring record in League One and needed the step down. He’s been less productive in Cumbria than Lancashire in spite of getting on the end of more chances and, at that point, you start to look at him maybe just not being a striker at this level at this point in his career. Next season, whatever his loan may be, will absolutely determine if he is an EFL level striker at all.

Matthew Dennis

Scored four goals, which automatically makes him about the best striker Carlisle have had this season. Either scores or is completely anonymous.

Cedwyn Scott

Scott returned to Carlisle after four years away during which he had impressed in the National League but, at Notts County, found the step back to League Two to be perhaps a step too far given how quickly he slipped down their pecking order. Scott bravely took a step away from the game for mental health reasons but it’s fair to say he’s only looked slightly more at home in League Two in the second half of his second season back at the level. More useful for the National League? Perhaps.

Anton Dudik and Freddie O’Donoghue are youth prospects who got a few minutes and are at least one more season away from regular action at Carlisle.

Joe Bevan

The Burnley man had a prodigious scoring record in Scotland’s League Two as his speed led to a late season burst in Albion’s relegation season. No such burst has cropped up in England’s League Two nor has any hint that Burnley would get any use from him in the first team.

Stephen Wearne

Previously with Williamson at MK Dons, Wearne hasn’t done too much, impressing vs Bromley but that’s it, and being peripheral in the midfield. Not great rather than offensively bad.

Dom Sadi

Of the two Bournemouth loanees, Sadi looked the more impressive or, at least, the more consistent. While, as you’d expect for a player taking his first steps in senior football, there were a couple of mis-steps but you have to think that if he could have been kept on, he would have been and definitely should have been.

Daniel Adu-Adjei

Like Sadi, made the bench for some EPL games for Bournemouth on his return.to the South coast. It was, to be fair, not difficult to see that he wasn’t the best fit for a Williamson side but would have been for Simpson had he remained and the more Williamson-y the side became, the more his performances dipped.

Tyler Burey

Burey is an odd one as, like Kadeem Harris, he joined late, got up to fitness and then… was punted out to go and play in the Bosnian top flight for Igman Konjic. Don’t get me wrong, as someone whose primary expertise is Balkan football, this is about as up my street as it could possibly get, but it’s an odd one, particularly as Igman Konjic aren’t exactly a big club or, for that matter, even a medium one. He isn’t really playing there and that probably says a lot as to his level right now.

Luke Armstrong

A lot of people disliked Luke Armstrong at Carlisle. There were fair reasons to in terms of the amount of goals he scored (or didn’t). However, what Armstrong did bring was work-rate. It could hardly be considered Armstrong’s fault that he didn’t get chances in either a low quality League One side or a League Two side that has struggled to create anything for anyone all season. His production wouldn’t qualify as good, but he also wasn’t always deployed as a front man and, in a side whose work rate has been increasingly criticised as the season went along, someone like Armstrong who presses and works all day would have been a more valuable asset than… well, Joe Hugill for a start. One who could flourish if with the club and with an actual supply line next season.

Danny Butterworth

Butterworth left under Simpson and was missed by some who saw a path to the good bits of his inconsistency becoming permanent. At Swindon now, it’s fair to say that that path hasn’t yet materialised fully but it’s equally fair to say that he was perhaps the most predictable scorer against Carlisle of any former player.

As an aside, I’ve mentioned a few “worst signings ever” candidates. None of these are necessarily the worst players, but in terms of the return on investment, their performances or their actions in key moments, these could potentially fill that remit in my view. …

Harry Lewis - I feel mean for saying it, but Lewis’ fee was reportedly just under £200k which works out as the fifth largest fee of the 23/24 season paid for an English keeper. It works out as around the 125th biggest fee paid for a keeper anywhere that season, which sounds unimpressive but Plymouth paid less for Conor Hazard who is their starting keeper in the Championship. By anyone’s reckoning, it stands out as exceptionally poor value but I don’t think how the side set up or what he walked into left him much chance of succeeding.

Jordan Jones - How much is Jordan Jones on? While some of the more extreme rumours are unlikely (I’ve seen people say up to £7k a week, which would be insane), Jones has been pretty hard to defend. No doubt he still has a fine cross in him every now and then, but Jones on reputation and likely salary has done far, far less than required and his ridiculous sending off for two yellows for diving pretty much sums his season up.

Josh Vela - While his salary isn’t as outrageous as some, Vela has actively cost Carlisle points this term. I’m unsure anyone in the EFL would take a chance on him next season and most Carlisle fans will be thankful that his contract is up so he can go somewhere else. Anywhere.

Elliot Embleton - Unlike Vela, Embleton has another three seasons on his deal. If you want a stick to beat Rob Clarkson with, there it is. Vela actively cost the team points, but he didn’t get sent off ten minutes into getting subbed on to cover an injury with a ridiculous tackle. Embleton did. Embleton may have time to turn things around, but he certainly doesn’t have the goodwill.

Charlie Wyke - Wyke’s salary is a bit more known - somewhere between £4-5k a week - and, again, while it’s not his fault, he has been injured all season. Even with that in mind, for the time he was available, two goals in 938 minutes is not the sort of return that wage demands. Paul Mullin was scoring a goal every 125 minutes last season on a very similar wage. It may not quite be an apples for apples comparison and it may seem a bit mean given his injury woes but his stats and salary have to put him in this category.

The Injured that showed little - Ethan Robson fits here as does Paul Dummett and I’m mightily tempted to put Georgie Kelly here also - if you want to include him as a category on his own, I entirely understand.

The Owners

Arguably, this is the difficult section to put together. After all, the Piataks have done A LOT of good in terms of the behind the scenes stuff at the club and, particularly, in bringing Brunton Park into the 21st Century.

However, and there has to be a however, it’s become clear as time has gone on that the Piataks probably made two key errors - one in planning, one in doing.

In planning, it’s that they clearly didn’t have the right (or arguably any) person in their ear on buying the club. They spent millions and did their diligence in advance of purchase only to not have the important thing of a person who knew how to run their football club in charge when they got in. They lacked the right contacts, they lacked the right person to spend their money wisely and, as a result their money has been spent in a progressively less impactful manner because the plan of how to run things that should have been there to hit the ground running wasn’t. More than one person who knows what they’re talking about has stated their dealings with the club suggested the owners lacked the knowledge of how to run a football club (or some, less polite, version of that sentiment).

I’m not quite sure that’s wholly the case. The Piataks earned their money to begin with so they aren’t fools nor are they people who walked into the football industry without doing a bit of research. They were probably naive to think that a club that had broadly ticked along without them would tick along with them also while they sorted some facilities out and scaled the squad budget up. It didn’t tick along, they’ve surely invested a great deal more into this season than ever planned and have gotten a relegation out of it. The club was ticking along so they didn’t feel the need to parachute in some great football expert.

Wrexham (not an apples for apples comparison but bear with me) in the first summer of their takeover brought in Les Reed as a board adviser for their footballing department - three months post takeover. Reed was previously technical director of the FA and held a similar role at Southampton. Vastly experienced, vastly knowledgeable and with a contact list the length of your arm, for a pair of actors running a club, he was the man they needed available to consult with.

Carlisle took a year to appoint Rob Clarkson who was stepping into a similar role for the very first time. There’s a bit of a difference there and had the Piataks taken the Wrexham approach here and brought in an experienced head, not even one the level of Reed, would they be in the situation they are now? Perhaps not because the planning and personnel needed would have already been in place - arguably, it isn’t even now.

The doing issue is the volume of investment in the stadium. £2.9m all in all in 23/24 and that, crucially, doesn’t include things that happened over the summer or through this season which, per other bits of the website, makes up another couple of million.

That money, let’s round that to £5m for the sake of ease, is only a little more than the predicted funding gap between League One and League Two status - take another million off for being in the National League based on past accounts.

While I’m not about to deny the need for upgrades to Brunton Park nor am I about to suggest that that money should have all been spent on the team or anything wild like that, a slower pace of upgrades there may have meant a faster pace of training/academy facilities or support facilities in coaching etc that would have potentially made the club more appealing to players or to, quite simply, focus on other things. The argument could be made that that shouldn’t have impacted the pace of anything else because such underperformance as this season could not have been predicted but, at the same time, did the Piataks really plan to be in a situation where income would be impacted to the point where they’re going to have to fish for another couple of million to stick into the club?

A slower pace of upgrades to assets may have permitted a faster pace of upgrades to the staffing and the planning that has let the club down so badly this term.

So, what next?

It goes without saying that Carlisle drop into the National League to become a big fish in a smaller pond, albeit a pond that is getting a bit bigger every season. The only guaranteed way to get out of it is to win it and it means things like qualifying rounds for the FA Cup rather than straight into the first round meaning potentially less income that way also.

Quite aside from anything like that, Carlisle are essentially a season behind where they should have been off the pitch and, as such, probably need to throw money at the problem more than they should have to to bring in a manager that plays the football the owners want to see (which is more Williamson than Hughes or Simpson) and to also sort out a playing squad that is bloated, has a bit of a topsy-turvy age profile, hasn’t connected with the support and, most obviously, hasn’t been good at the business of actually playing football.

Quite aside from the future of the coaching vacancy that will surely come available, the playing squad will need a huge revamp. Below is my take on what to do with the first team squad as things stand. Those not highlighted are ones on whom I’m relatively ambivalent.

That gives what should be a pretty strong starting line up for the level with a few holes to fill, particularly in midfield but it would leave an experienced core that knows the club in Lavelle and Guy to assume leadership roles, the likes of Scott, Thomas and Whelan who are very proven at National League level, Breeze and Ellis who will be looking to be kept and who will need another season of growth.

Managerially, Mark Hughes surely won’t be hanging around so Carlisle have the opportunity to set up from day one the style of football to build upon. While others will have certain views on it, my own would be that this is the time to grab Rhys McCabe from Airdrieonians who would potentially come on the back of a relegation himself (depending on what happens with Hamilton’s appeal) but one with a huge caveat of having finished the Scottish Championship season on a hot streak after a hideous first half of the season with injuries and poor recruitment in the summer. A simple normal season of recruitment and a normal season of luck would suggest he’d flourish much as he did in earning his reputation last season - arguably his price tag this summer would be lower but his reputation, particularly should he manage to avoid relegation via the playoffs, must be considered to have been enhanced in terms of the varied skillset shown. Others will have plenty of valid opinions and, really, any opinion that doesn’t involve the words “Steve Evans” will have at least some merit to it.

The real question is, perhaps, what exactly the plan is to get the club to a point where it pays for itself. Based on the accounts, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that Carlisle’s earning limit before non-recurring incomes (Cup runs, player sales, etc) is around £6.5m and that it’s about £2.7m to keep the lights on before spending a penny on footballing staff. While playoff final money isn’t to be sniffed at, the reality is that Carlisle haven’t had a cup run of any form for a decade and, truthfully, for the club to run with the squad quality that the Piataks want, that’s simply not good enough and breakeven is either via a) a cup run with an EPL away day in the FA/EFL Cup at Round 3 or beyond, b) being in the upper echelons of League One or the Championship or c) producing a Jarrad Branthwaite once every five seasons. No matter how much you may rate any of the current squad, none of them fit into that latter category and the other two categories are, ultimately, things that can’t really be said to have happened much for the current and previous generation of fans and certainly not with the regularity needed. They’re also things that are far easier to enact from a position of being in the EFL than not given the later FA Cup start and the higher level of opposition experienced in day to day play.

Some fans will posit that you can’t just buy your way out of the National League, an opinion which seems to pay no heed to the fact that the previous three winners of the division in Stockport, Wrexham and Chesterfield all did exactly that. They were all run competently aside from that but it’d be naive to suggest that they were run any more competently than more modest sides in the league - money made the difference. There is no requirement for Carlisle to magically reinvent the wheel or somehow become exceptionally well run over the next three months – they simply need to be as competently run in the footballing department as any other side in the league and the money will make the difference.

That isn’t to say such competence is a given - this season has exposed that Carlisle United’s failings are not just in one area of the club but rather they are of the “from top to bottom” variety - but they are one decisive choice of direction and maybe three key appointments in the backroom away from achieving such competence and that Carlisle have been relegated before the final weekend at least gives the opportunity to get started on that work early. Given how thoroughly this season has discredited the likes of Greg Abbott and Nigel Clibbens, It’s hard to see how some people could stay on into next season purely as their presence would not allow any benefit of the doubt should next season start slowly. That’s simply a reflection of their status with the fan-base as we sit here at the effective close of 2024/25.

So that’s where we’re at. With Carlisle confirmed in 23rd and not bottom, there is at least the sliver of hope that Reading might be kicked out of the EFL and give United a reprieve that was should that club not be sold. That isn’t beyond the realms of possibility but it would certainly be the most undeserved of reprieves and leave an extremely sour taste in the mouths of many. For the first time since 2005, Carlisle will be a non-league club and will enter the league as a scalp for every Altrincham, Brackley and Braintree in the division. Arguably, they will also enter the league as heavy favourites to regain their EFL place.

But, much as you have taken some considerable effort to read all this, the club are some considerable work off earning that favourite status as we sit on relegation day. Hopefully this piece has at least made clear what a lot of that work is going to be.

For Carlisle to earn their spot back, rich has to start feeling a lot better than poor.