UEFA Qualifying Round Draw Guide

Three tournaments, the hopes of twenty-seven sides from Slovenia down to Skopje all previewed after the draws

Who cares about the World Cup?! With the draws of European Qualifiers, it’s time for a run through of every side in the region’s chances in their ties and what these first steps hold as they seek for European football through the autumn. Spoiler alert - it’s not a good summer to be a Vojvodina fan!

Champions League

Qualifying Round 1

Tie 7 Vardar vs KuPS (Finland)

KuPS were impressive in the Conference League last season, beating Slovan Bratislave and picking up points against Lausanne and Crystal Palace before a Knockout Playoff loss to Lech Poznan. This is a slightly weaker side than that, purely as they made a couple of big sales on the back of their European success, but they continue to be one of the stronger sides in the Veikkausliga with threats across the attack. They should have too much for Vardar.

Tie 8 Kauno Zalgiris (Lithuania) vs Drita

First off, no, they’re not the more famous Zalgiris from Vilnius, this is the Zalgiris from Kaunas who have only been around for twenty years. They haven’t done much in Europe in the past, losing handily to Arda Kardzhali last season but offer threat from distance with Yukiyoshi Karashima. While they sit third in the league at the moment and come in with the benefit of half a season in their legs to catch Drita cold, they are also the top scorers in Lithuania and this has to be put firmly in banana skin territory. But, as I’ve said for a few seasons - Drita almost never get put out of Europe by sides that aren’t much bigger than them. Kauno Zalgiris certainly aren’t that so you have to fancy the Kosovan champs.

Tie 11 Borac Banja Luka vs Levski Sofia (Bulgaria)

The standout tie of the first qualifying round pits Bosnia vs Bulgaria and some of it will depend on who picks of Levski between here and the tie - Left-back Maicon has many admirers, for one - but any side that ended Ludogorets stranglehold on the gold has to be taken extremely seriously. Of most import for us here is that they swept past Sabah in the Conference League last term on their way to a playoff loss vs AZ Aalkmar and Braga needed penalties to get past them in the Europa League. Repeat that sort of form and they should be past Borac without too much fuss. For Borac, this is a hell of a chance to put the demons of last season’s embarrassing European campaign to bed and they remain in possession of a very strong side. Absolutely the tie of the round.

Tie 13 Kairat Almaty (Kazakhstan) vs Sutjeska

4600km as the crow flies…

Almaty, the city that really stretches the definition of the word European to absolute breaking point, is the furthest east you can go this season. They did for Celtic last term as they ran from QR1 to the League Phase and, for this tie at least, will still be able to call upon Dastan Satpayev. With the order of the legs meaning Sutjeska travel first, the jet lag impact also has to be taken into account but, if we’re honest, that’s simply turning an easy win into an easier one - Kairat should have far too much here.

Qualifying Round 2

Winners of Tie 5 (Tre Fiori of San Marino or Larne of Northern Ireland) vs Crvena Zvezda

Making the assumption this is Larne, it’s not the nicest of draws for the Serbian champions. Larne haven’t gotten appreciably worse since their appearance in the Conference League in 24/25 and were nothing if not redoubtable in Europe last season. That said, I’m sure they won’t mind me saying that a tie against Crvena Zvezda would be the biggest game the club have had in their history in terms of the calibre and trophy cabinet of their opponent. They’re far from a bad side but Zvezda will be extremely heavy favourites - even if I’d suggest it’ll be a little tighter on the pitch than on paper.

Winners of Tie 1 (Sabah of Azerbaijan or TNS of Wales) vs Winners of Tie 7 (Potentially Vardar)

As I don’t fancy Vardar in the first round, let’s just say both of these would do Vardar too.

Winners of Tie 14 (Atert of Luxemborug or KI of the Faroes) vs Winners of Tie 8 (potentially Drita)

This feels like a very good opportunity for Drita to secure themselves League Phase football in something or other before the end of July. I do expect them to beat Kauno Zalgiris which probably means you’re talking about a game vs KI, given Luxembourgeois football is at a bit of a low compared to a few seasons ago. KI are led in attack by Harald Brattbakk’s son Filip which is a reminder that if you know his dad, you’re old. While they reached the Conference League in 23/24, they’ve not got out of qualifying since, but their losses have been close ones. Both sides of this tie will fancy their chances and will do so knowing one win will mean an autumn of European football - I would expect Drita to sneak through.

Winners of Tie 11 (potentially Borac) vs Winners of Tie 9 (Vitebsk of Belarus or U Craiova of Romania)

If Borac get through, their next task will be a little further north but no less challenging. Craiova were in the Conference League League Phase last term with wins over Rapid Vienna and Mainz, as well as scalping Sarajevo and Istanbul Basaksehir in Qualifying. Borac would undoubtedly not be favourites here.

Omonia (Cyprus) vs Winners of Tie 13 (Potentially Sutjeska)

Omonia will be playing Kairat.

FC Thun (Switzerland) vs Dinamo Zagreb

Tie of the round. I’m not a Swiss football watcher but this is a side with more than one recognisable name in it such as Mattias Kait (formerly of Domzale), Macedonian striker Elmin Rastoder and Kosovan International Valmir Matoshi.

Would any of them get in the Dinamo side? No. So you have an interesting tie which, on one hand, feels like it should be very close because Thun are Swiss champions and were 20 points ahead of Young Boys (who have been no slouches in Europe) and, on the other, feels like it shouldn’t be close at all with a cursory look at the playing staff of the clubs. I’m tempted to lean towards the latter in my reading of the tie and, while it’s a great story at Thun, maybe it’s simply the case that last season in Switzerland was weird and that’s going to be shown up here.

Winners of Tie 10 (Petrocub of Moldova or Egnatia of Albania) vs NK Celje

Celje’s ambition this year, pure and simple, is to either be in the Champions League League Phase or be going deep into one of the other competitions. You only have to look at their previous two seasons in Europe to know that they really should be getting past either of these sides with ease - they’ve beaten far better and Egnatia were KOd by last season’s poor Olimpija side not 12 months ago. Egnatia are likely the stronger of the two opponents with a decent first eleven but not all that much in depth.

League Phase Hopes: You have to fancy Dinamo, Zvezda, Celje and, perhaps most surprisingly, Drita to get to QR3 in the Champions League and secure League Phase placement of some form at the earliest opportunity - passing QR2 in the Champions League is the only way, in this set of draws, to guarantee that.

Europa League

Qualifying Round 1

Tie 3 Hajduk Split vs MSK Zilina (Slovakia)

These two have previous - Zilina KOd Hajduk in the 2009/10 Europa League. More recently, things have been harder but, to my Drita point above, it’s pretty rare that anything other than a good side knocks out Zilina with their last two appearances being cut short by Rakow and Gent respectively, making this three rather awkward seasons on the bounce in terms of the draw they’ve received. Last season, they were a little porous but, we know the history - don’t expect Hajduk to do much in Europe and this is very much a Hajduk side that’s in a bit of a rebuilding phase. Zilina should be favourites to squeak this - but it will be a squeaker.

Tie 5 Sheriff Tiraspol (Moldova) vs Aluminij

Hmm. This is undoubtedly the kindest draw Aluminij could have received - Sheriff are far from what they used to be and while it took Anderlecht and Utrecht to end their European trip last season, Prishtina were well beaten in Tiraspol but Sheriff don’t always carry home advantage due to Transnistria being, for want of a better term, a bit dodgy. Are Aluminij better than last season’s Prishtina? Probably not, but if they can keep it tight in Moldova, they could pull off a shock.

Tie 6 Vojvodina vs Ferencvaros (Hungary)

Vojvodina are pain. I mean, what a draw this is and this isn’t even the worst draw they have got. Fradi are, of course, rather stung this term having come second in a one horse race in the NBI last season. It’s an offence they’ve reacted to by hiring the manager that beat them and they still have obviously the strongest squad in Hungarian football with goals throughout and plenty of experience at higher levels. On top of that, it’s Vojvodina vs a Hungarian side, which naturally carries a little bit of needle, and Vojvodina, in five ties, have only ever lost a tie once to Hungarian opponents. They are extremely ambitious and their summer business this season has been of the nature that suggests they’re going out to make last season’s second a permanent moving of Serbia’s big two to include Novi Sad as a big three - you don’t sign the proven quality of Dakovac, Zukic and Mitrovic to get put out easily at this stage - and there’s an easy argument to make that Vojvodina are better in certain areas of the park than Fradi and assuming that Ferencvaros will progress would be a very dangerous assumption to make.

It’s a tie that wouldn’t look out of place in the League Phase or beyond and, of all the first round ties in either competition, this is by far the most mouthwatering. Fradi will, rightly, be favourites, but this will be one hell of a two legged tie.

Qualifying Round 2

FC Twente (Netherlands) vs Winners of Tie 6 (potentially Vojvodina)

If Vosa get through that, then there’s the small task of facing a side with plenty of quality in Twente - Marko Pjaca, Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Sam Lammers are all well known and, to be fair, Vennegoor of Hesselink is the sort of name you remember too, even if Lucas hasn’t done too much in senior football yet. Twente, however, started slowly last season and, much like the Ferencvaros tie, would be favourites but not massive ones. Oh, and if Vojvodina thought Ferencvaros then Twente was hard, well, I’ve bad news for them a little later.

Winners of Tie 3 (potentially Hajduk) vs Pafos (Cyprus)

Pafos, of course, reached the Champions League League Phase last term, seeing off Crvena Zvezda in doing so. That was on the back of a great season in the Conference League and, while they have been picked on a little since, they still have some real quality in the side and sides like Hajduk have been sides Pafos have passed with ease of late.

Winners of Tie 5 (potentially Aluminij) vs Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel)

If Aluminij get past Sheriff, Maccabi are definitely stronger and it’s hard to imagine they’d have much hope.

Conference League

Look at this section. This is the bit of the article where you start to ponder my sanity for writing this sort of preview but, here goes…

Qualifying Round 1

Tie 1 Velez Mostar vs Milsami Orhei (Moldova)

Milsami are… eclectic. They did for Buducnost last season but were then KOd by San Marino’s Virtus and, in 21/22 did manage to KO Sarajevo. You’d think that, if Milsami play to their potential, they probably will get the win in this one, but it’s far from a blowout.

Tie 4 Connah’s Quay Nomads (Wales) vs Ballkani

The Nomads went out to Kosovan opposition in Prishtina in 21/22 and this Ballkani side is a better one than that. They also went out to Bravo two years ago. Ballkani were top scorers in Kosovo last term thanks to the departed Sunday Adetunji (who scores for fun at this sort of level) but Valentin Serebe and Giovanni are both a couple of levels above the Nomads. The big question - are Nomads moving the game miles away like they did with Bravo given they’re normally (just about!) close enough for me to justify travelling to a European game.

Tie 7 Dinamo Minsk (Belarus) vs Sileks

Dinamo play in a summer league so will come in fit and sharp, unlike Sileks. They took Ludogorets all the way last term, which followed an appearance in the Conference League League Phase. Dinamo will win this handily.

Tie 8 Decic Tuzi vs Liepaja (Latvia)

Liepaja’s European record actually isn’t great but, vs Balkan opposition, they’ve consistently done the job. Based on this season, they’re low scoring (1), but they’ll be sharp from a summer league and there’s no reason to think they’d fail here.

Tie 11 Mornar Bar vs Atletic club d’Escalades (Andorra)

Tight. Very tight.

Tie 13 Petrovac vs Zalgiris (Lithuania)

This one is the more famous Zalgiris. This one will be getting through.

Tie 20 FK Sarajevo vs Inter Turku (Finland)

Inter lead the Veikkausliga and will come into this game sharp playing week in, week out. Sarajevo haven’t done too much in Europe for a few seasons but, save for 21/22, have ran into some difficult draws. With Finnish sides doing well of late, it’s reasonable to think this also classes as a difficult one. The Bosnian giants have stalled over the last few seasons and there’s valid doubts over where their best players will play come the close of the summer (not at Kosevo, most likely) so I’d plump for the Finns here.

Tie 21 Europa (Gibraltar) vs Shkendija

Shkendija all day long.

Tie 26 Vllaznia (Albania) vs Malisheva

Malisheva are a selling club and have done just that in seeing Etnik Brruti go to Hajduk. Last season’s European campaign ended with a battering from Vikingur and, while this will be closer, Vllaznia should have plenty enough here and the likes of Kallaku and others are a step above anything Malisheva have.

Qualifying Round 2

Champions Path

Losers of Tie 11 (Borac/Levski) vs Losers of Tie 10 (Petrocub/Egnatia)

Should Borac be defeated in the Champions League, they’ll console themselves with likely an easier game in the Conference League although, if it’s Egnatia they end up playing, that could well be a very feisty tie!

Losers of Tie 9 (Vitebsk/U Craiova) vs Losers of Tie 13 (Kairat/Sutjeska)

Either, you’d expect, will be too much for a Sutjeska side that’s already lost some players since the end of the season.

Losers of Tie 2 (Floriana of Malta or Shamrock of Ireland) vs Losers of Tie 8 (K Zalgiris/Drita)

These sides both feel a little harder than Kauno. Floriana, the likelier of the two, were put out by Ballkani last season and Drita are better should they end up in the Conference League track early.

Losers of Tie 7 (Vardar/KuPS) vs Losers of Tie 6 (Ararat of Armenia or Riga of Latvia)

In general, I don’t fancy Vardar in their Champions League tie and I wouldn’t here either and slipping out of Europe at the first opportunity seems likely.

Main Path

Rijeka vs Losers of Europa League Tie 4 (CSKA Sofia of Bulgaria or Derry City of Ireland)

You have to feel a little for Derry because they’ve gone from getting a nasty draw in the Europa League and a nasty draw here. They’re also not having an especially good season. Assuming it’s them, and you should, Rijeka should progress with ease. Rijeka will certainly hope to make more of a positive impression than they did vs Shelbourne last term as they struggled past another Irish side.

Lugano (Switzerland) vs Dukagjini

Lugano, who likely think Celje have something against them after the last two seasons, will have far too much for Dukagjini. A repeat of their annihilation vs Rijeka is likely

Winners of Tie 8 (Decic/Liepaja) vs Austria Vienna (You surely don’t need the country here)

Austria Vienna no matter who they face.

Loser of Europa League Tie 3 (Hajduk/Zilina) vs GKS Katowice (Poland)

It’s GKS’ first European season since 03/04 when they lost out to Cementarnica Skopje and pipped Legia to qualification in Ekstraklasa last term. Really, Hajduk need to be beating Zilina because this is a really awkward one to land if they don’t.

Varazdin vs Hradec Kralove (Czechia)

This is the Czechs third season in Europe and first in over thirty years and the Czech side of things is complicated by nonsense this time around. Hradec Kralove are heavily domestically based and with little reaching the national team (save for old man Darida). Varazdin aren’t a side that will qualify through any cup draw with ease but this is one they should be able to progress through.

NK Bravo vs Winner of Tie 21 (Europa/Shkendija)

Bravo-Shkendija? Yes please. Bravo generally are good starters to a season and firmly earned their European spot over much bigger sides in Maribor and Olimpija. While Bravo would be outsiders, the sheer pace they have against a good, but pedestrian Shkendija side would be a real weapon they could exploit and this may be one that goes all the way.

Valur (Iceland) vs Zrinjski Mostar

Valur are in the midst of a very average season but will meet a pretty transitional Zrinjski having recently changed manager. Toss a coin until things with the Mostar club are clearer.

Winner of Tie 12 (Mondorf-les-Bains of Luxembourg or Dinamo Tbilisi) vs Winner of Tie 13 (Petrovac/Zalgiris)

Petrovac won’t be here anyway.

Loser of Europa League tie 5 (Sheriff/Aluminij) vs Winner of tie 3 (Dinamo City of Albania or Astana of Kazakhstan)

And this is why Aluminij could do with beating Sheriff, which is doable, because Dinamo City are well funded and recruiting actively and Astana are, you know, in Kazakhstan. Either would beat Sheriff so Aluminij need to make the most of their first tie in the Europa League.

DAC Dunajska Streda (Slovakia) vs Winners of Tie 1 (Velez/Milsami)

DAC would beat either and handily.

Winners of Tie 26 (Vllaznia/Malisheva) vs Hibs (Scotland)

As much as it’d be a mismatch on paper, the innate Hibs-ness of Hibs puts both sides they’d face in with a chance of at least scoring one very solid result across the two legs (see 23/24 vs Inter Club d’Escalades for proof) albeit maybe not a chance of actually progressing.

Neftci (Azerbaijan) vs Winners of Tie 7 (Dinamo Minsk/Sileks)

Sileks won’t get here. If they did, Neftci would do some damage.

Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Braga (Portugal)

This is Zeleznicar’s first European season and first European tie and they get a side in Braga who nearly made the final last term. Only once this decade have Braga not made it beyond the Group/League Phase of Europe and they’re huge favourites even before you factor in that Zeleznicar have been in selling mode this summer with Stefan Pirgic’s sale to Plzen only the first of a series of deals that’ll happen this summer. Fair play to Zeleznicar for making money while they can but, no matter how well they reinvest it, you can’t back them here. It’s the sort of tie that makes you think UEFA must hate the Serbian coefficient…

Losers of Europa League Tie 6 (Vojvodina/Ferencvaros) vs Ajax (Netherlands)

…REALLY hate the Serbian coefficient. Honestly, I fancy Vosa to win at least one leg of the minimum four games they’ll play no matter what - they are a fine side as mentioned above - but there’s no reading of their draws against Fradi, Twente and Ajax that doesn’t involve head in hands even if they did push Ajax all the way two years ago. Good luck.

Winners of Tie 2 (Bohemians of Ireland or St Joseph’s of Gibraltar) vs Winners of Tie 4 (CQN/Ballkani)

Ballkani do have a real chance to reach QR3 here - Bohs would obviously be the more taxing draw but haven’t been in Europe for a little while. Ballkani would be favourites for me.

FC Vaduz vs Winners of Tie 11 (Mornar/Atletic)

Also tight but I’d plump for Vaduz if forced.

Winners of Tie 24 (NSI of Faroes or Hamrun Spartans of Malta) vs FC Koper

This is an interesting one. Koper have done a lot right for a few seasons on the spin now and, once one puts reputation and funding to one side, they’re rightly the second best side in Slovenia. Hamrun Spartans made the League Phase last season but didn’t beat a great deal in getting there and, if Koper haven’t made too much in the way of sales or squad turnover by the time this tie comes around, they are probably a better side than anything the Maltese side defeated in Qualifying last season. It wouldn’t be a shocker if all Slovenian sides managed to progress at least one round this season.

Partizan vs Winners of Tie 25 (UNA Strassen of Luxembourg or La Florita of San Marino)

Honestly, I don’t think that even Partizan can screw this up and while I seriously doubt Partizan will be making the League Phase, getting minnows gives them a chance to match last season’s QR3 appearance at the very least.

1 - Not really doing footnotes here but I just want to note the existence in the Latvian top flight of a side called “Ogre United”. Yes, they’re from a place called Ogre, but that’s a Shrektacular name for a club.