Rock Bottom
Carlisle's Boxing Day loss at home to Morecambe marks a modern nadir
When Mike Williamson was appointed Carlisle manager in September, it felt pretty quickly like a bit of a weird fit. I mean, I was pointing the issues out after one month in charge and it didn’t feel like it was too early to judge things.
Going back to that piece, many of the criticisms haven’t changed. Carlisle don’t look to play through a press and, as such, are easy to play against if you’re just organised. Carlisle don’t have touches in the box - in Simpson’s L2 time, they were 8th in the division, by the end of October that was 15th and today vs Morecambe that was ten touches in the box across 90 minutes against the worst side in the EFL, who had 25. At home. For the season, they’re now 18th in that metric.
This isn’t a blow by blow match report of the Morecambe game, nor is it a stats led deep dive into what’s wrong in general. This is simply a “what the f**k?” on the back of a performance that will get a side relegated.
What the f**k
Obviously, when you’re following a side bottom of the league (and, by league, the entire EFL not just League Two), there are problems.
As some accounts on social media have noted, fans were throwing torn season tickets on the park during the Morecambe game. This isn’t a support that are behind what’s being put in the pitch, this is a support that isn’t happy. What had they seen vs Morecambe to make them decide that they could live without watching the remainder of the season?
Perhaps I’ll betray my own footballing philosophy here but the key phases in football games are ones of transition. Attacking transitions allow you to take advantage of an unsettled defence. Defensive transitions allow you to recover the ball and get it in good positions. Attacking is attacking. Defending is defending. Both are phases of organisation. Attacking and defensive transitions are phases of disorganisation.
Mike Williamson’s Carlisle do not do attacking transitions. They do not unbalance sides. On the rare occasion they do - such as today vs Morecambe seeing Mellish earn a foul at the edge of the box or Armstrong’s turn and shot - they actually create stuff. But transitions under Williamson are not transitional phases, they are consolidation phases. They are phases in which you get your foot on the ball and pass it about.
This isn’t a criticism of possession-based football. Genuinely building from the back can be effective when done right, but Carlisle’s version of it isn’t because the side itself isn’t mobile and isn’t offering for the ball to allow genuinely probing passing. Only one side have attempted fewer through balls in League Two than Carlisle this season (Bromley, in case you’re wondering - Crewe are close to Carlisle), but that side are much more intense in their pressing than Carlisle so they are creating far more transitional phases.
More transitional phases usually means more shooting opportunities (Bromley have about 1.5 more shots per 90 than Carlisle and 8 more xG in total) and more goals. Carlisle have scored three in the past two months across 8 league games.
The Morecambe game
23rd hosting 24th is obviously not going to be the highest quality of affairs and it wasn’t but Carlisle should have gone in front in the third minute - a corner falling to Hayden at the back post who managed to put it wide. I could provide ample commentary on how he had to score, etc, but I feel no words could possibly illustrate it better than the shot map from SofaScore showing it go 8 yards wide from not 8 yards out.
Moments like this are obviously decisive and, for Carlisle, it served to set the tone of the game while also providing the only big chance for Carlisle for a first half that got away from them the longer it went.
The issue with Williamson’s football is that, while in possession it looks reasonably competent - Carlisle know how to pass and retain possession - it’s reliant on ensuring that that pressure is in the right areas and with the right intensity so as to actually smother opponents and it needs the side to be aggressive out of possession.
Carlisle with the ball didn’t have pressure in the right areas - Morecambe were happy to sit with ten men behind the ball meaning that there was little in the way of incisiveness. When Morecambe were in possession, Carlisle weren’t aggressive - they allowed Morecambe to bring the ball forward and relieve pressure. Once Morecambe shifted into attacking phases, they were able to bring the ball forward well into wide areas and Carlisle lost their rhythm allowing Morecambe to dominate the final 6-8 minutes of the first half, creating a couple of dangerous crossing opportunities and, most importantly, getting the crowd on Carlisle’s backs as that loss of home initiative led to stray passes and wrong decisions.
What both sides needed was a big half-time. Morecambe got one, Carlisle didn’t.
First Half
Second Half
Whatever Mike Williamson said at half time didn’t work as Carlisle produced their worst ten minutes of the season to open the second half. Morecambe got their lead on 61 minutes as Mellish attempted to dribble the ball out of defence (because there weren’t passing options available), got caught in possession and, with Carlisle unbalanced in transition, Dackers put a low cross in for Edwards to poke home.
A minute later, it got worse as Mellish was shown a straight red card. While the TV angle wasn’t conclusive due to a player being in the way of the contact, a combination of in ground reports and a knowledge of Mellish’s history of maybe not having the coolest of heads, most fans would probably accept the referee made the correct call.
From there, the game proceeded to an inevitable miserable denouement. Williamson brought on some more attacking players for defensive ones and the only ones to benefit from the game becoming more open were Morecambe. While it was not the sort of disastrous self-destructive level of bad some teams reach, somehow the utter lifelessness of Carlisle’s mediocrity was worse. At least under Keith Millen, the side had obvious things to fix in terms of lacking money and being incapable at set piece defence - this was assembled on a good budget and lacks any excuse for underperforming to this degree.
League Two always has bad teams in it and sometimes those bad teams are bad because of external factors related to funding, to owners or to absolute nonsense - Carlisle are bad because they are bad. Miserably, lifelessly bad. You can’t have a possession side where there aren’t players offering for the ball, yet Carlisle do. You can’t have an attacking side where there isn’t any intention to play in a manner that finds attackers in space. You can’t pay a side what Carlisle are paying some players and not have that cutting edge or look inspired at all.
And, ultimately, that comes down to a manager not knowing how to use the players. A manager not able to inspire the players. A manager not able to attain the trust of players.
And, for Mike Williamson, therefore a manager not likely to get many more opportunities to lead his players.