Reopening the Window

On the back of a dire Nations League, is there a surprising bit of hope for Montenegro heading into World Cup Qualifying?

If you’ve followed me on social media for a little while, be that one currently socially acceptable or otherwise, you’ll probably have seen me pop an opinion down something like this:

Montenegro are a good shout to make the 2026 World Cup.

It wasn’t that wild an opinion at many points over the past 18 months. They came reasonably close to making Euro 2024 and, for a couple of minutes, were only one goal away from it. They replaced Miodrag Radulovic with Robert Prosinecki which wasn’t that odd an appointment - Prosinecki’s record at Azerbaijan and Bosnia was not too bad and tend to look a little better in hindsight given where those nations are now. On top of that, Prosinecki is nothing if not an attacking manager and Montenegro are nothing if not a side that are a bit unbalanced in terms of having so many of their riches being forward players.

Instead, it’s been a match made in hell. Two friendly wins in March against Belarus and North Macedonia have been followed by seven successive defeats beginning with a very creditable 2-0 loss away to Belgium where Montenegro were far from outclassed and culminating, so far, with a very not creditable 2- loss at home to Iceland on their ay to what seems to almost certainly be a pointless Nations League campaign.

It’s soul searching time at the FSCG as Monteegrin football has endured an annus horribilis with 2024 having been a year defined by the failures of the national team and, on the domestic front, failures of sporting integrity (see the recent Njegos-Zeta affair and the match-fixing issues in the spring) and failures of competence (see the multiple goals that have been given that didn’t cross the line this season).

Yet the underlying reasoning behind that statement at the top of this piece somehow may still apply. There’s a great deal of muck to shovel out of the way to get there, but it’s still a valid thought to have.

What went wrong this Autumn?

First things first, Robert Prosinecki is going at the end of the November international break. His contract was only ever to that point anyway and racking up the longest losing streak in the nation’s short history (and, should Turkey beat them, the longest winless streak also) doesn’t exactly give much justification for your contract to be extended. On his own personal note, while people are always willing to give a genuine legend of the sport chances, the reality is that this is four coaching appointments on the spin which could now be viewed as abject failures. Even qualified failures like Rudes and OIimpija look worse in hindsight that his departure at the time first suggested. Montenegro might not be his last job, but it will be his last good one.

And, before any revisionism gets out there, one could potentially see him as unlucky given injuries to Stefan Savic, Viktor Dukanovic and Vasilije Adzic have robbed him of potentially important figures, Montenegro have gone through games not laying a glove on opposition figures. Jake Paul has had harder fights recently.

CG Fudbal put up an analysis of what went wrong vs Iceland and it was startling that while Montenegro played fine for 45 minutes, there was a huge second half drop off that basically allowed their opponents to dictate the game to them. They relied on the long ball and didn’t have extended periods of possession. Against an Age Hareide side, who basically relish anyone trying to best them on being direct and aggressive, it’s a nonsense of a tactic and exposed the backline badly as they were consistently unable to get those long passes to their intended targets. Iceland’s strategy was basically to force Montenegro to attack up their weaker side where the combo of Radunovic and Camaj was obviously weaker than the other side of Marusic and Radulovic.

Again, as reasons to resist any temptation to redeem Prosinecki in hindsight, that last paragraph is a pretty convincing one. We can point out a lack of player availability and a lack of player depth, but there’s been a lack of smarts also.

Why did Montenegro have a chance for 2026 anyway?

Montenegro are, quite simply, between generations. That doesn’t sound like a bonus, I know, but if you put together an international side of a 32yo Adam Marusic, a 33yo Stefan Savic, a 24yo Slobodan Rubezic (who, by the by, it seems Prosinecki may have fallen out with), a 18yo Vasilije Adzic, a 20yo Viktor Dukanovic, a 35yo Stevan Jovetic and a 24yo Nikola Krstovic you have more than half of a very good starting eleven of which a couple may be going over the hill and a couple still very much on the rise but all of whom are capable of providing more often than not.

The talent that’s around them isn’t at the same level but, save for their goalkeeping situation, there isn’t a role in the squad where you would look upon it and fear for them. Edvin Kuc has rarely put a foot wrong, Andrija Radulovic has had a stop-start season but can certainly find a level more than he’s found for the national team so far (passing to him would also help him there!), Novica Erakovic has had availability issues through injury but will eventually be to the standard they need in the centre as well and Milutin Osmajic is a handy back-up striker to have, even if he sometimes has a little bit too much bite for his own good.

It’s not an especially deep squad, particularly not as the domestic league is of such a low standard that the coefficient has been flirting with San Marino’s, but I think most people would agree that, when everyone is available, they have a better squad than most would expect and a better squad than their results would suggest.

Obviously, one has to attempt to fit all of that into one starting eleven but, fortunately, it does kind of work naturally. One issue Dukanovic has had in getting in the side is that managers liked to put Jovetic on the left but the 35yo can be better deployed centrally now allowing Krstovic to have three options to hold up for and an AM option that allows him to run in behind a defence, something he likes doing.

As you can tell, there aren’t many role up for debate in terms of who the number ones are. To be fair, there aren’t many roles with depth either - the midfield has options and the RB has options to play both Marusic and Vesovic against stronger opponents where Radulovic may get caught out but, otherwise, your only depth options without a big drop in standard are Vujacic as CB and Osmajic as CF. Only at GK and LB are you picking as “best of a bad bunch”.

Montenegro need things to go right for them in terms of availability but if we compare that starting line up to, say, Slovenia at Euro 2024, the gap between the sides isn’t that great. And, much like Slovenia there, Montenegro need a pragmatic manager now who plays their game and demands the opposition beat them on their terms rather than whatever has gone on this year. They need a good draw as well, but so does every side, and UEFA’s amending of qualifying to accommodate the Nations League gives a side like Montenegro a better chance of reaching the playoffs than previously.

This side does have a window and it’s a window that is right now because even a cursory look at the youth line-ups shows you that the replacements for Savic, Marusic and Jovetic just aren’t there. They aren’t in the major academies becoming major talents, they’re at home or in smaller academies. More to the point, they’re getting beaten game in, game out - the U21s won 2 of their U21 Euros qualifiers (vs Albania and Armenia) and have convincingly lost four in a row.

The window is now. And while the FSCG’s inbox is a long one, if they get the next appointment right, the potential reward could provide the funding to the game that allows them to clear that inbox for a generation.