Coefficient Time

A look forwards to European competition next season

Having seen a pop-up come up saying this substack is now being followed by Scotland’s Coefficient (*waves hello*), it made sense to go back to something I did last year for another site and do a collection of coefficient previews for clubs in the region ahead of European draws and what reasonable expectations could be. So, following the time honoured north to south pattern, here we go…

Slovenia

Qualifiers

Olimpija Ljubljana - Champions League First Qualifying Round

Celje - Europa League First Qualifying Round

Maribor - Conference League Second Qualifying Round

Koper - Conference League First Qualifying Round

With 9.093 points earned in 24/25, the season was a huge historic outlier for Slovenia with each other season that counts averaging under 3. With both Olimpija and Celje making the KO stages of the Conference League, it hoisted Slovenia away from a clutch of nations in the thirties of the ranking all the way into the lower end of the clutch of nations that goes from about 19-30 in the rankings.

That’s the good news.

The not so good news is that that doesn’t really boost the clubs up seedings. Celje, for example, are seeded for the first round of the EL only and, realistically, 3QR and taking their chances in the Conference League is the ceiling of their hopes there.

Olimpija, meanwhile, have a very good chance of making a group stage given their CL seed status will carry through the first two rounds of qualifying. While 2QR carries a couple of massive bogey sides in the unseeded set (one well meet in a bit), Olimpija (assuming they sort their managerial situation out competently) are a slice of luck only away from reaching the CL playoffs. Failing to reach at least the Conference League group stage should probably be seen as a disappointment at Stozice.

For the Conference League entrants, Koper are seeded in QR1, Maribor are definitely seeded in QR2 and should be considered highly likely to be in QR3 also and reaching the playoffs is a reasonable ambition for them.

While it’s not likely that Slovenia will hit the heights of this season, it’s fair to expect 25/26 to still beat their historic performances and boost them higher up towards securing later entry in the Conference League for their sides for 26/27 and, perhaps, a path for champions straight into QR2 of the CL.

Croatia

Qualifiers

Rijeka - Champions League Second Qualifying Round

Dinamo Zagreb - Europa League League Phase

Hajduk Split and Varazdin - Conference League Second Qualifying Round

Can this be the season Croatia FINALLY get a second side in the groups? Croatia should really be a nation pushing for 15th and a fifth qualification spot but the lack of anyone other than Dinamo contributing much to the coefficient has been their Achilles heel and that’s not a swing that can happen in a single season.

But it’s a gap that can be mostly bridged in a single season.

Rijeka’s double helped massively here with Dinamo going straight into the EL groups at the expense of Shakhtar (who go into EL QR1 as a result!).

For Rijeka to miss out, they’d have to play three ties and lose three ties and that’s just not all that likely unless they get shafted three times by the draw. While their unseeded status on entering in QR2 of the Champions League isn’t a help, their unofficial status is as the unseeded side none of the seeded teams will want and there’s only a couple of seeds you’d write them off against at that stage.

That also means that, even if they lost that tie, they’d be seeded for the EL 3QR and it’s that that probably gives the best chance of the one successful tie as there will be some minnows there. For Rijeka to miss out on the Conference League at worst feels pretty far fetched and while their demolition by Olimpija in August 24 haunts judgements, it’s hard to expect a repeat.

Which leaves Hajduk and Varazdin. Hajduk will be seeded in QR2 and QR3 and, potentially, the Playoff as well. Varazdin’s ability to neutralise any team they come up against, as seen time and time again in 24/25 domestically, makes them an unseeded side to avoid in any round and it would not be a surprise to see them knock at least one seed out.

Experience tells me to not have faith in Hajduk to make the groups but with Dinamo and Rijeka, Croatia have the best chance in years to make it two in a group stage for the first time since 20/21 and provide a timely boost to the coefficient.

Bosnia

Qualifiers

Zrinjski - Champions League First Qualifying Round

Borac and Zeljeznicar - Conference League First Qualifying Round

Sarajevo - Conference League Second Qualifying Round

Thanks to Borac, 24/25 was a fine season for Bosnia. The problem is that that Borac side is probably going to be picked apart this summer, as is that Sarajevo one.

Zrinjski will be seeded in QR1 only but this is a slightly lesser side than that which they’ve taken into qualification the last few seasons. It’s not lesser enough to slip on a banana skin in that round but the playoffs should be the limit of their expectations this term.

The Conference League is arguably the more interesting one. Borac’s performance last season basically ensures they would be seeded all the way to the playoffs but, with their defence already looking for employment elsewhere, the reason for the success in 24/25 may be their weak spot in 25/26 - QR1 shouldn’t cause them much in the way of issues, but anything after that will be considerably more awkward. The same could be said for Zeljo who similarly should be able to handle almost any side they meet in QR1 but less so in the next round. Sarajevo will be doing well to be anything more than one and done.

24/25 was an unexpected good year for the Bosnian coefficient - even if many wouldn’t consider Borac wholly Bosnian - but 25/26 looks more like a bump back to earth.

Serbia

Qualifiers

Crvena Zvezda - Champions League Second Qualifying Round

Partizan - Europa League First Qualifying Round

Novi Pazar and Radnicki Kragujevac - Conference League Second Qualifying Round

Admin first of all - OFK actually earned a European spot via the league but were denied a UEFA licence for administrative reasons (which the FSS haven’t stated but I assume is the bit where they’re owned at arms length by Zvezda). Partizan actually earned a UEFA licence is spite of owing over €47m to creditors of which €41m is due to the state. My continual surprise at Partizan getting opportunities in spite of their financial situation grows.

Zvezda are very likely to be seeded the whole way through qualification and it wouldn’t be unfair for them to have an expectation of Europa League at the very worst. Anything worse than that would be a severe underperformance from a) the squad and b) Zvezda’s formline over the past few terms.

Speaking of formlines, Partizan spent last season’s European campaign standing on rakes staggering from humiliation to humiliation. While they’re seeded for the first two rounds in the Europa League, that second round could see them vs Utrecht, Besiktas, Celje, Hibs etc and you could see all of those easily besting Partizan at the minute and you’d make a similar argument about anyone they may face in QR3 of the Conference League or beyond.

To the Conference League, both QR2 entrants are unseeded and both are likely the sides in the European race in the Superliga (the others being Vojvodina and TSC) that had the least chance of doing anything. Novi Pazar are probably the better bet to do something - they’re less likely to be losing their best players - both both will need a preferable draw based on recent history to get through.

Same old, same old for Serbia - Zvezda will be the ones earning the points.

Kosovo

Qualifiers

Drita - Champions League First Qualifying Round

Prishtina - Europa League First Qualifying Round

Ballkani - Conference League Second Qualifying Round

Malisheva - Conference League First Qualifying Round

Drita led the way last season, reaching the playoff and being competitive in defeat against Legia Warsaw. Ballkani undoubtedly should have done more, being KOd by firstly Andorrans and then by Larne of Northern Ireland but this wasn’t the Ballkani of the two seasons before as they had a changing of the guard.

To go Conference League first, Malisheva can be discounted already - Hazrollaj is gone this summer, Etnik Brruti will surely follow - and as an unseeded side with the quality of squad they’ll have come the qualifiers, they’ll need an exceptionally favourable draw to do anything. Ballkani, meanwhile, are still on a bit of a transitional one and though they enter QR2 seeded due to their Group appearances a couple of seasons back, they’re probably the weakest of that bunch and ripe for a seedings based upset.

Prishtina won’t win a game, I’m sorry to say. Every EL seed should demolish them and they’d enter the Conference League QR2 as one of the lowest ranked unseeded sides and results will follow that.

Which leaves Drita. Drita are one of those sides, a bit like Rijeka, who just have absolutely zero luck. They’ve been knocked out in the last seasons by Legia, Plzen, Antwerp and Feyenoord, none of whom have embarrassed Drita. They come into this European campaign on the back of a very convincing League win and while they’ll be a little weaker from losing players this summer, it’s hard not to expect a similar standard of side would be required to knock them out this time around. The result would be a very fair expectation that they reach the Conference League groups depending solely on who they end up drawing in EL QR3 having won their first tie in the Champions League and losing their second - the difference between a seasonal haul of 2 or 3 points for the country.

Montenegro

Qualifiers

Buducnost - Champions League First Qualifying Round

Sutjeska and Decic - Conference League First Qualifying Round

A bit of admin again - Petrovac finished second but were denied a licence. Buducnost survived an appeal, Petrovac did not on account of not submitting paperwork related to financials (or, as some allege, said paperwork didn’t exist in the first place). There’s also an awaiting match-fixing thing against Arsenal Tivat, who won their relegation playoff while writing this, whose 2023 game vs Alashkert was believed to be fixed.

Mornar’s surprise run to QR3 of the Conference League last term gave Montenegro some much needed points to lift themselves out of the bottom five. With every side seeded in QR1, can they top that?

No.

Decic were horrible for most of the season, Sutjeska are ripping their plans up this summer to deal with money issues and underperformance and Buducnost will be a weaker side come July. If Buducnost get a San Marinese side, they’ve got a chance of winning a tie but little else through their adventures on a Champions path is actually a worse side than them. Similar applies with the rest, unfortunately.

North Macedonia

Qualifiers

Shkendija - Champions League First Qualifying Round

Rabotnicki, Sileks and Vardar - Conference League First Qualifying Round

After a season where there wasn’t any relegation proper due to sides getting points deductions and just nope-ing out of the league as a result, Macedonian football is at a historic low. They won zero ties last season and with everyone unseeded, it would be a brave person to think they’ll win one this term either - Shkendija have the best chance and Sileks can do something with an OK draw but, realistically, QR3 in anything is the limit for them and, even then, I’m probably being optimistic.