Building on the unexpected
Where now for Slovenia after Euro 2024
The third and final of the site’s post-Euros post-mortems is a bit different to the others. Serbia were in chaos. Croatia flirted heavily with success before falling out of the tournament.
Slovenia, meanwhile, had a tournament that went far beyond most people’s expectations. I hesitate to add that this was not beyond my own expectations of them as someone who watches them regularly.
As such, Slovenia’s task beyond Euro 2024 is rather different. While there will naturally be some change of playing staff, there isn’t a need for a revolution. Looking at the squad, the only likely leavers would be Vid Belec, Jasmin Kurtic and Josip Ilicic - Belec, as back-up GK, is replaceable and arguably already replaced given the availability of Vekic and Vidovsek. Kurtic and Ilicic, meanwhile, were bench players and replaceable. We’re talking about three players of a twenty-six man squad, leaving you a core of twenty three players which is your normal squad size anway.
The point being that Slovenia’s squad rotation between here and the World Cup in 2026 can be nil if Matjaz Kek wants it to be. It it a group for those on the outside to work to get in - the likes of Mitja Ilenic, Marcel Ratnik, Tjas Begic, Tio Cipot, Svit Seslar and many more hoping to come through have to win their spots on merit rather than be given spots from forced experimentation. Slovenia’s immediate focus will be to ensure a positive Nations League campaign that manages at least one of two things - an improvement in the nation’s FIFA ranking to rise to a Pot 2 nation for World Cup Qualification and/or a direct path into the World Cup Playoffs via the Nations League.
A nice lack of dilemmas to have. Arguably, Slovenia’s and, more specifically, the NZS’ dilemma is how to crystallise two and a bit weeks of national hysteria into gains week in, week out. For a nation that you are almost duty bound to note does not count football as the premier sport of the nation’s attentions (given Slovenia’s prowess at anything involving mountains), turning Slovenia into a footballing nation isn’t the easiest thing to convince people of but, for Slovenia to maintain the gains of the Kek era so far, it’s what they have to do.
On the pitch
Slovenia’s tactical personality is easy - it’s 4-4-2, it’s aggressive, it’s counter-attacking, it’s fast. Roberto Martinez’ pre-R16 tie description of them as like a club side is a fair one. There isn’t a great complexity in what Slovenia are asked to do and, as a result, it allowed them to complete their jobs to perfection. As a result, they don’t lose games - only one of fifteen in the last calendar year. The closest they approach complexity are in specific targets - such as in the pressing game against England directing them into trouble. Game by game adjustments from analysis are all the variety Slovenia offered.
The focus in the training camp was to peak in the final group game and they managed that to get a message through. Rather than focusing on adaptations and changes, they were able to focus on cohesion. At a tournament where many teams would have players arriving late or arriving needing a bit of a different schedule due to managing fitness and club commitments, Slovenia’s plan from day one to work as a unit and to take advantage of the comparative lack of attention on them worked wonders. Rather than falling under ego like Serbia, Slovenia could only really be criticised for a weak first 20 minutes against Denmark and 10 seconds of losing concentration at the end of the Serbia game. It is a template that will serve them well should they reach future tournaments.
Against Portugal, their game plan was a goal short of perfection. While some criticised it as parking the bus, that would suggest a pure focus on soaking up pressure as possible and that would be a rather insulting way to look at what Slovenia did as they did a heck of a lot more than that to make the favourites uncomfortable in terms of their pressing, their shape and their counter-attacking.
But their defending was delightful. No side completed more tackles or cleared the ball in the tournament more than Slovenia. To make a fair comparison, Georgia were the closest side to them on both of those metrics yet conceded 43 (!!!) more shots than Slovenia did, 20 more shots on target and their NPxGA was a whole 6.18 more than Slovenia’s across the four games. Slovenia did similar work to the side that conceded the most xG in the tournament and did so far, far better than Georgia managed. Slovenia were as defensively efficient as they come, managing all that with the lowest average possession in the tournament. Sides parking the bus have some of those metrics, but Slovenia’s underlying attribute isn’t THAT they played defensively, it’s that they were so well drilled in that defensive stance that it advanced beyond parking the bus. Viewers of their games against Denmark and Serbia will have seen plenty of periods where Slovenia’s aggression and speed in progressing the ball caused their more vaunted opponents a considerable amount of trouble.
Describing a side as efficient isn’t often much of a compliment, but it certainly is in Slovenia’s case.
Off the pitch
With that taken care of, the NZS’ issue is how to turn two weeks of excellence into a season of interest. To go back over twenty years - 1163 people attended your average Prva Liga game in 01/02, the season before their first World Cup appearance. That was 859 in 09/10, just before their second one. Last season was 1279, almost exactly the same as the season before.
The point is that there seems to be little actual correlation between Slovenian football doing well on the international stage and fans turning out and giving clubs their money. Can this season buck that trend?
From a sheer marketability perspective, the fact that the Prva Liga can boast star performers from the national side in Elsnik and Karnicnik is one thing but far greater is the strong likelihood that this season will see a titanic title race between Maribor and Celje - the sort of thing that should get fans of at least those two clubs turning out. On the negative side of things, this coincides with a point where Slovenia has currently got the best cyclist in the world and possibly the best basketball player in the world (and the Olympics coming up) - space is not exactly wide open for them to grab the attention of the wider public.
On the other hand, that may, in itself, present opportunity. With the Olympics hogging attention, a reasonable stance would be to move league games scheduled during them for the sides competing for European competition spots in Celje, Bravo, Olimpija and Maribor to enhance their chances in UEFA competitions. Access to Group Stage games and funds could have a big impact on attention on Slovenian football domestically - Olimpija would tell you that their home game vs Mura just after a Conference League groups home win saw a big attendance boost compared to their other meeting late in the season (2500 vs 1100), Celje would tell you that if you get given a few million by UEFA, you spend it to try to keep that revenue stream going.
It’s undoubtedly difficult for FAs to influence things too much - if one side runs away with the title and the domestic season is dull, while everyone gets horrible draws in Europe, then that’s things over and there’s not anything you can do about that. But as, seemingly, Slovenian football’s biggest fan outside the nation (or, at least in the top three!), it’s an opportunity to get eyes on a product that haven’t always been there.
Legacy might be an overused word, but the NZS now have to try to make sure this tournament, and this squad, have a lasting one.