And then there were two...
Super Saturday blows Dinamo out of the Croatian title race
Some days in football, the extraordinary happens. Not just in one place, but all over. 22 February 2025 was one of those days for certain.
You could point to one of the most incredible editions of Serbia’s eternal derby for evidence, a 3-3 draw at the Marakana with Partizan equalising at the home of their rivals with a 95th minute penalty. You could point to it being the first day both Celtic and Rangers lost in the league on the same day for over 7 years. Arsenal losing to truly end the English title race. There’s surely more if you care to look.
But none of them will hold a candle to what happened in Croatia as the big four all played each other in two very different games, with two very unexpected outcomes that serve to leave us with the most unexpected title race.
The day began at Poljud for Hajduk vs Osijek. Osijek have, to be fair, had a strange season, exceptional only in its lack of consistency. They lost only two of their last thirteen games on the run in to the winter break and, if you choose only to look at that run, you’d think they were good. They’ve only taken five points from the other ten games, which explains why they’re well off the pace at the top, challenging Varazdin, Slaven and Lokomotiva for the final European spot rather than anything loftier.
At Poljud, they certainly weren’t outclassed and, realistically, you’d struggle to find an Osijek loss this season where they were. It’s been slightly in jest but the general rule of thumb has been that when Osijek play well, they lose, when they don’t, they win. This is probably the neatest explanation possible for their xG stats which places them more or less exactly where they are now but without their contextual weirdness.
So, when I note that the xG on this game was 1.5-1.16 in Hajduk’s favour, it should go some way to explaining why it ended Hajduk 4 Osijek 0.
It shouldn’t pass without note that Osijek lost half of their strikeforce in the fifth minute, with wonderkid Anton Matkovic going down after shooting. Soon after, Osijek switched off defensively at the second phase from a corner - the ball was cleared to Hrgovic and he lofted the ball back over the top.
With the entire Osijek side looking forwards rather than at the large CB calling for the ball, Uremovic had acres of space in which to slot home.
Soon after, Hajduk took the game away from Osijek with, firstly, a moment of genius from Marko Livaja.
The control to make the opportunity was one thing but to take the shot so early kept Malenica in goals off balance and left him with no chance whatsoever. It is one of those goals that looks incredibly simple but requires some elite reactions to actually pull off. Livaja would have his second five minutes later with an all too simple header at the back post and Stipe Biuk would add the fourth at the death with a very scruffy goal.
If I have had one criticism of Hajduk in this past couple of seasons of challenging for a title (yet not winning one), it’s that they don’t know how to beat sides well - of their 12 wins, 8 have been by the odd goal compared to Rijeka’s 5/12. It’s not easy to run a title challenge when two thirds of your wins are close run things - it depends too much on fortune and it asks a great deal mentally of your squad. This sort of statement win, then, is surely exactly what the club needed as we head into the run-in and exactly what Hajduk need to do a bit more of to win over people like me to thinking that this one, finally, will actually end the two decades of pain at Poljud.
For Osijek, for all they are clearly aiming for a particular play style, the basics of concentrating and being solid aren’t especially close and they seem as far away from delivering on their principles as ever.
Then there was Rijeka-Dinamo.
Whatever sort of fan you are, you get a sick enjoyment out of seeing big teams get absolutely hammered. Brazil 1 Germany 7. Man U 8 Arsenal 2. We like seeing silly results and Rijeka 4 Dinamo 0 is definitely in that category. It would not be unfair to say that had Rijeka done Dinamo by seven or eight, it would have been deserved. One thing that each of those games share with this one is there being one extended spell where it seems like a side just plain forgot how to play football.
While I COULD put a video of Nais Djouhara’s shot from outside the box, which was a lovely goal, the bits where Dinamo forget how to play football are more relevant. That opener came from a Dinamo goal kick where, when passing it round the back, Rijeka’s not all that intense a press saw Nevistic go long and aimless and the ball be in the back of his net five minutes later. In Nevistic’s defence, there wasn’t the motion ahead of him to actually do a great deal else and, although Dinamo’s midfield doesn’t actually lack mobility, this situation saw a lack of willingness to show for a pass or move to open up a passing lane so Dinamo could have moved forwards with purpose.
Then came issues of discipline - a strong tackle from Radeljic was penalised with a free kick and nothing more so Mmaee and Kanga argued their way into the referee’s book. Seven minutes later, Kanga’s game was over after a clumsy late boot on Radeljic. Dinamo were down to ten and about to fall apart.
Between Kanga’s red card and Rijeka’s second, Dinamo didn’t touch the ball.
We can see Dinamo’s tactical adjustment straight away as Baturina (Blue 10) moves up from midfield to create a 4-4-1 giving space between Dinamo’s “attack” and midfield for Rijeka to run into and pass without much in the way of pressure. In doing so, Fruk drops back between that line and pulls Ademi narrower allowing Rijeka to build a 3v2 down their left wing. This allows Devetak to get the run on makeshift RB Kevin Theophile-Catherine and the cross for Jankovic was easy to slot away.
Rijeka used this exact ploy twice more, using the extra man to pull a hole in Dinamo’s central midfield to exploit it wider - once, it foundered as a backheel pass on the right wing wasn’t executed well enough and ended in a Dinamo throw, the second was the move that led to territory that led to Rijeka’s third goal five minutes later, an all too easy finish for Dejan Petrovic on the end of a corner as Baturina failed to track Petrovic’s run.
It’s fair to note that Petrovic wasn’t in shot when the corner was taken.
A note on Baturina in these five minutes - awful. If you’re switching to that 4-4-1 and being the 1, you have to press aggressively, particularly as you’re essentially just playing for 5-7 mins to get your side to half time to regroup and have more detailed tactical instructions. Instead, Baturina jogged and applied little pressure - on one occasion, you could see him shout at his midfield to help him out a bit but when that wasn’t forthcoming, he dialled his aggression back to match the passive nature of his colleagues. In one comic moment before half time, Theophile-Catherine just shoved Baturina over to be able to reach a ball.
Dinamo switched at half time to bring on Kulenovic to give them a focal point up front yet the fourth came shortly after with more set piece problems for Dinamo after slow reactions saw firstly Kulenovic and secondly Belcar caught out playing Rijeka onside. While it stayed 4-0 to the end, Rijeka had three further big chances, even cracking the post, to add to their lead.
While the table reads as below, the feeling has to be that this one result has put Dinamo to bed for the season.
The Cannavaro era has been challenging so far. While there was little lost in losing to Arsenal in the Champions League and going out in the League Phase, but only just, other results have been more troubling. Losing to Osijek didn’t cost them, as part of a weekend where Rijeka and Hajduk lost also, but their wins have been underwhelming - Istra, for the second time this season, should have got more from Maksimir than nothing and Dinamo came far, far closer to losing to third tier Bjelovar in the cup than anyone expected, having had to come from behind at the death. The expectations of Dinamo are that you win the league and Dinamo are unlikely to win the league. Hajduk and Rijeka may not have made the most of every opportunity that has come their way, but coming back from seven points back against a Rijeka side that has a) just beaten you 4-0 and b) doesn’t really lose games is difficult.
Next up for Dinamo is Osijek at home in the Cup before hosting Hajduk next weekend. Hajduk and Rijeka, meanwhile, face off in the cup midweek with Rijeka travelling to relegation strugglers Gorica at the weekend.
Who wins what will play out across the next three months, but yesterday made clear that the remainder of this season will be about the rivals on the Adriatic coast, and that Zagreb will be a sideshow.